Friday, August 30, 2013

Introduction To Commercial Paper

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The world of fixed-income securities can be divided into two main categories. The capital markets consist of securities with maturities of more than 270 days, while the money market comprises all fixed-income instruments that mature in 270 days or fewer. Commercial paper falls into the latter category and is a common fixture in many money market mutual funds. This short-term instrument can be a viable alternative for retail fixed-income investors who are looking for a better rate of return on their money.

Basic Characteristics
Commercial paper is an unsecured form of promissory note that pays a fixed rate of interest. It is typically issued by large banks or corporations to cover short-term receivables and meet short-term financial obligations, such as funding for a new project. As with any other type of bond or debt instrument, the issuing entity offers the paper assuming that it will be in a position to pay both interest and principal by maturity. It is seldom used as a funding vehicle for longer-term obligations because other alternatives are better suited for that purpose.

Commercial paper provides a convenient financing method because it allows issuers to avoid the hurdles and expense of applying for and securing continuous business loans, and the SEC does not require securities that trade in the money market to be registered. It is usually offered at a discount with maturities that can range from one to 270 days, although most issues mature in one to six months.

History of Commercial Paper
Commercial paper was first introduced over 100 years ago, when New York merchants began to sell their short-term obligations to dealers that acted as middlemen. These dealers would purchase the notes at a discount from their par value and then pass them on to banks or other investors. The borrower would then repay the investor an amount equal to the par value of the note.

Marcus Goldman of Goldman Sachs was the first dealer in the money market to purchase commercial paper, and his company became one of the biggest commercial paper dealers in America following the Civil War. The Federal Reserve also began trading commercial paper along with treasury bills from that time until World War II to raise or lower the level of monetary reserves circulating among banks.

After the war, commercial paper began to be issued by a growing number of companies, and eventually it became the premier debt instrument in the money market. Much of this growth was facilitated by the rise of the consumer credit industry, as many credit card issuers would provide cardholder facilities and services to merchants using money generated from commercial paper. The card issuers would then purchase the receivables placed on the cards by customers from these merchants (and make a substantial profit on the spread). A debate raged in the 1980s about whether banks were violating the Banking Act of 1933 by underwriting commercial paper, since it is not classified as a bond by the SEC. Today commercial paper stands as the chief source of short-term financing for investment-grade issuers along with commercial loans and is still used extensively in the credit card industry.

Commercial Paper Markets
Commercial paper has traditionally been issued and traded among institutions in denominations of $100,000, with notes exceeding this amount available in $1,000 increments. Financial conglomerates such as investment firms, banks and mutual funds have historically been the chief buyers in this market, and a limited secondary market for this paper exists within the banking industry.

Wealthy individual investors have also historically been able to access commercial paper offerings through a private placement. The market took a severe hit when Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy in 2008, and new rules and restrictions on the type and amount of commercial paper that could be held inside money market mutual funds were instituted as a result. Nevertheless, these instruments are becoming increasingly available to retail investors through online outlets sponsored by financial subsidiaries.

Commercial paper usually pays a higher rate of interest than guaranteed instruments, and the rates tend to rise along with national economic growth. Some financial institutions even allow their customers to write checks and make transfers online with commercial paper fund accounts in the same manner as a cash or money market account. However, investors need to be aware that these notes are not FDIC-insured. They are backed solely by the financial strength of the issuer in the same manner as any other type of corporate bond or debenture. Standard &Poor's and Moody's both rate commercial paper on a regular basis using the same rating system as for corporate bonds, with AAA and Aaa being their highest respective ratings. As with any other type of debt investment, commercial paper offerings with lower ratings pay correspondingly higher rates of interest. But there is no junk market available, as commercial paper can only be offered by investment-grade companies.

Rates and Pricing
The Federal Reserve Board posts the current rates being paid by commercial paper on its website. The FRB also publishes the rates of AA-rated financial and non-financial commercial paper in its H.15 Statistical Release every Monday at 2:30pm. The data used for this publication are taken from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), and the rates are calculated based on the estimated relationship between the coupon rates of new issues and their maturities. Additional information on rates and trading volumes is available each day for the previous day's activity. Figures for each outstanding commercial paper issue are also available at the close of business every Wednesday and on the last business day of every month.

The Bottom Line
Commercial paper is becoming increasingly available to retail investors from many outlets. Those who seek higher yields will likely find these instruments appealing due to their superior returns with modest risk. For more information on commercial paper, contact your financial advisor or visit the Federal Reserve Board website at www.federalreserve.gov

Thursday, August 29, 2013

INTC Drags Down Semiconductor ETFs - ETF News And Commentary

The semiconductor space has been rebounded nicely, outpacing the broad markets this year. But of late, the space has shown some weakness due to the sharp fall in price of Intel Corp. (INTC), the largest chip maker in the world (read: 6 ETFs Beating the Market Over the Past Year).

Inside Intel Slump

Recently, Apple (AAPL) inked a deal with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) in which the latter will produce A-series chips for Apple's iOS devices early next year. This news has negatively influenced the Intel share price as the chances of Intel becoming a contract chipmaker for Apple is less likely.

Further, Intel fell 3.64% in Monday's trading session due to negative revisions by three analysts. This marks nearly 9% decline since mid June. The analysts are worried that Intel might cannibalize its sales of desktop and laptop microprocessors with the cheaper "Atom" mobile chips.

This could lead to hard times in maintaining the same level of margins in mobile devices. Moreover, the weakening personal computer market trends are weighing on the top line of Intel (read: The Top Choice in the Tech ETF World?).

ETF Impact

This chain of negative news in Intel has made trading difficult for semiconductor ETFs over the past week, in particular those with a large exposure to Intel including the following ETFs:

The most popular in the sector, Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH), lost 2.14% in Monday trading, though it is still up nearly 16% in the year-to-date timeframe. The fund provides concentrated exposure to 26 securities by tracking the Market Vectors US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index.

Intel takes the top position with nearly 20% of assets, followed by Taiwan Semiconductor (13.45%) and Texas Instruments (6.30%). The fund has $263.2 million in its asset base and charges an expense ratio of 35 bps.

The iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), having amassed $234.8 million, was down 2% in Monday trading. It has nevertheless delivered im! pressive returns of over 22% so far this year. The ETF follows the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index and offers concentrated exposure to 31 firms.

Intel takes the third spot in the basket with nearly 7.8% share while the first two spots –Texas Instrument and Applied Materials – do not make up for more than 7.9% share in either case. SOXX does charge a higher fee of 48 bps a year from investors (see more in the Zacks ETF Center).

The other two ETFs – SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) and PowerShares Dynamic Semiconductors Fund (PSI) – with less exposure to Intel, lost 2.21% and 1.12%, respectively, in the rough Monday trading session.

XSD tracks the S&P Semiconductor Select Industry Index and holds 51 stocks in the portfolio. The product provides diversification benefits across each security as no single company takes up more than 3.1% of the assets. The fund has accumulated $63.1 million in AUM and charges 35 bps in fees per year.

On the other hand, PSI follows the Dynamic Semiconductors Intellidex Index. Holding 30 securities, the fund has large exposure to Micron Technology with nearly 6.01% of assets, closely followed by Analog Devices and Applied Materials with 5% share each. The ETF has $16.2 million in AUM and charges 0.63% in expense ratio.

In the year-to-date timeframe, XSD has added 19% while PSI has gained 10.5% YTD (read: Why Semiconductor ETFs Are Crushing the Market).



Bottom Line

Although the ETFs have been stressed due to Intel's sluggish performance, these gained nicely in the year-to-date frame (read: Semiconductor ETFs for 2013?).

The gains could continue moving forward based on some solid trends in the space. Some analysts are expecting global semiconductor sales to continue to rise – even with a decline in PC shipments –given their requirement in the emerging technology applications like tablets and smartphones, so ! don't w! rite off semiconductor ETFs just yet.

Still, make sure to pay close attention to the space this earnings season, as it could go either way for this important corner of the market. However, with some strong Zacks Industry Ranks for a number of semiconductor-focused segments, the recent INTC weakness could make this a decent buying opportunity, should firms in this industry live up to their lofty Ranks this earnings season and beat rising estimates, despite the Intel worries.

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Wednesday, August 28, 2013

So Long, Spreadtrum

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Spreadtrum's (Nasdaq:SPRD) time as a publicly-traded semiconductor company wasn't all that long, and it certainly wasn't always easy, but it looks like it's coming to a happy conclusion for shareholders. Speadtrum announced Friday morning that it had accepted an improved bid from Tsinghua Unigroup and agreed to sell itself for $31 per share in cash.

A Fair Bid...
Not only was Tsinghua's final bid about 10% better than its initial bid, but it represents a takeout price above the company's prior all-time high in late 2011. Spreadtrum is selling itself for about 14 times its trailing EBITDA, only a very slight discount to the mid-teens average of well-known mobile chip companies like Avago (Nasdaq:AVGO), Broadcom (Nasdaq:BRCM), and Qualcomm (Nasdaq:QCOM). Moreover, relative to the company's cash flow growth potential, this was a very reasonable price for the stock.

SEE: What Makes An M&A Deal Work?

… All Things Considered
The reason I include the "all things considered" part is that it really isn't fair to compare Spreadtrum straight-up to these other chip companies. Unlike Avago, Broadcom, and Qualcomm (and Intel (Nasdaq:INTC) to an increasing extent), Spreadtrum doesn't try to develop the most cutting-edge chips for the next top-of-the-line smartphones at Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) and Samsung.

Spreadtrum doesn't even target what most would consider to be the U.S. mass market for smartphones. Instead, Spreadtrum looks to provide chips for companies building low-end smartphones for emerging markets like China. The difference between these markets is substantial – the ASPs for Qualcomm's most advanced chipsets are within spitting distance of the ASP for some entire phones containing Spreadtrum chips.

That creates a very different set of priorities and goals for Spreadtrum. The emphasis here is on efficient, low-cost manufacturing, scale, and a more bare-bones R&D approach that looks to do more with less. But with nearly 60% share of the TD-SCDMA 3G market and relationships with major phone companies like Samsung, Huawei, HTC, and Lenovo (Nasdaq:LNVGY), it's a model that has worked reasonably well for the company.

Not A Market-Shifting Move
It is worth noting that the acquirer of Spreadtrum, Tsinghua Unigroup, is a state-owned LLC. That could have some interesting ramifications for the huge Chinese phone market (and the development of future standards), although it's not as if state-owned companies haven't been competing alongside more conventional private companies for some time already.

Ultimately, I don't think this deal moves the needle very much outside of China. MediaTek and Spreadtrum had an interesting rivalry going on, and Spreadtrum was conceivably a threat to companies like Marvel (Nasdaq:MRVL) on the very low end, but Spreadtrum knew what it was (and what it wasn't), and didn't seem to have delusions of grandeur. There is still a worthwhile question to ask as to whether companies like Spreadtrum and MediaTek can move into the lower ends of the U.S. market (and start pressuring ASPs), but seeing as how a large majority of Chinese phones are still 2G, it seems more like apples and oranges at this point.

The Bottom Line
If anything, this deal for Spreadtrum offers a reminder as to how few semiconductor deals of any size there have been recently. I doubt this will light the fuse on a new wave of consolidation, but it will be interesting to see if companies start turning to deals to improve their scale and/or leverage follow-on markets. In the meantime, expect companies like Broadcom, Qualcomm, and Intel to keep trying to one-up each other in the premium market while a host of Asia-based companies focus on the sizable unit growth opportunities at the lower end of the market.

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Bear of The Day: Sherwin Williams (SHW) - Bear of the Day

Sherwin Williams (SHW), Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), is a manufacturer and distributor of paints and coating products. Given that conventional wisdom favors growth in the housing sector, it feels awkward painting a negative outlook for Sherwin Williams. However, the company is richly valued and seeing its earnings estimates cut. The combination could leave your portfolio colored red instead of black.

Valuation is stretched:

The trade is extremely optimistic toward Sherwin Williams based on the forward earnings outlook, and as a result the bar for exceeding earnings estimates may be high. The stock is priced at about 19.5 times forward 12 month earnings. This compares to a 10 year average of 14.8 and minimum and maximum values of 10.2 and 22.3 respectively. The stock is less expensive based on its PEG ratio (price to earnings ratio to earnings growth) of 1.33, which is near average. However, no one wants average in their portfolio. The recent rise in mortgage rates and slowdown in pending home sales suggest there is risk that the growth rate in earnings slows. Higher mortgage rates may not only reduce new home buying, but the drop in refinance activity may cut household spending power and the dollars available for remodel.

Earnings estimates are falling:

The Zacks Consensus EPS Estimate for the September 2013 quarter has fallen $0.20 over the past 30 days, while the December 2012 quarter estimate has declined $0.23 to $1.37. There have also been notable declines for the outlook for 2014 earnings where the Zacks Consensus Estimate has dropped $0.60 to $9.24.

No analysts have revised earnings estimates up for the coming quarters or 2014 for the past 30 days, while estimates have declined in the past 30 days for 2013 and 2014. There is strong agreement for a reduction in the earnings outlook.



The price and consensus chart shows the peak in e! arnings estimates and the recent decline. The stock prices has followed the direction in earnings revisions.

An Alternative:

Investors looking for exposure to the paint and coating market may want to examine Valspar (VAL), Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Earnings estimates for Valspar have trended flat to higher over the past 30 days and the few analyst revisions that have occurred have been up and not down. The PEG ratio is about 1.05 and near the lower end of the 10 year range. Valspar has stronger upward momentum to earnings revisions and looks less expensive than Sherwin Williams.

Monday, August 26, 2013

Best Warren Buffett Stocks To Buy For 2014

Many oil and natural gas service companies called the fourth quarter of 2012 a trough in the North American market. By all accounts so far during this reporting period, that appears to be especially prescient. International heavyweights Halliburton (NYSE: HAL  ) and Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB  ) both witnessed signs that a second half turnaround us likely upon them and the industry as a whole.

What does that mean to Warren Buffett?
Well, a lot, really. For the last couple of quarters, Buffett has been adding stock in National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV  ) to his portfolio and for what appears to be good reason. The company is modestly priced compared to peers and has its hand in both on-land and offshore drilling markets. Replacing parts on rigs and upgrading global fleets is Varco's business, and there are no shortage of customers.�

Best Warren Buffett Stocks To Buy For 2014: VIRGIN MEDIA INC COM STK USD0.01(VMED.L)

Virgin Media Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides entertainment and communications services in the United Kingdom. The company offers cable broadband Internet, television, and fixed line telephone services under the Virgin Media brand to residential customers; mobile telephony services through Virgin Mobile, a mobile virtual network operator; broadband and telephone services to residential customers through third-party telecommunications networks; and video on demand services, including access to movies, television programs, music videos, and other on-demand content, as well as provides digital video recorders. It also offers voice, data, and Internet solutions to commercial customers comprising analog telephony and managed data networks and applications, as well as supplies communications services to health and emergency services providers. As of December 31, 2011, the company provided cable broadband services to approximately 4 million subscribers; cable television s ervices to approximately 3.76 million residential subscribers; cable telephony services to approximately 4.2 million residential subscribers; mobile telephony services to approximately 3 million customers; non-cable fixed line telephone services to approximately 163,300 subscribers; and voice, data, and Internet solutions to approximately 50,000 businesses and 250 public sector organizations. The company offers its products and services through telesales, customer care centers, and online, as well as through its sales force. It serves mobile and fixed-line service providers, systems integrators, and Internet service providers; and private and public sector organizations. The company was formerly known as NTL Incorporated and changed its name to Virgin Media Inc. in February 2007. The company was founded in 1993 and is based in New York, New York.

Best Warren Buffett Stocks To Buy For 2014: Premafin(PRAI.MI)

Premafin Finanziaria SpA, through its subsidiary, engages in the insurance business in Italy and internationally. Its products include: car insurance, such as civil liability and auto; non-life insurance, which comprise liability, injury, illness, transportation, and individual risks; and life insurance and financial products, such as pension funds and asset management. The company also undertakes promotion and development of real estate. Premafin Finanziaria SpA is headquartered in Rome, Italy.

Top 5 Performing Stocks To Own For 2014: IHS Inc. (IHS)

IHS Inc. (IHS), incorporated on May 5, 1994, is a source of information and insight in areas, such as energy and power; design and supply chain; defense, risk, and security; environment, health and safety (EHS) and sustainability; country and industry forecasting, and commodities, pricing, and cost. The Company is organized by geographies into three business segments: Americas, which includes the United States, Canada, and Latin America; EMEA, which includes Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, and APAC (Asia Pacific). IHS sources data and transforms it into information and insight that businesses, Governments, and others use every day to make decisions. Its product development teams have also created Web services and application interfaces. These services allow its customers to integrate the Company�� information with other data, business processes and applications (computer-aided design, enterprise resource planning, supply chain management, and product data/lifecycle management). The Company develops its offerings based on its customers' workflows, and it sells and delivers them into the industries in which IHS�� customers operate. As of November 30, 2011, HIS focused on five customer workflows: strategy, planning, and analysis; energy technical; product engineering; supply chain, and EHS & sustainability. As of November 30, 2011, it was focused on six verticals: energy and natural resources; Government, defense and security; chemicals; transportation; manufacturing, and technology, media, and telecommunications. In March 2012, the Company acquired Displaybank, a global authority in market research and consulting for the display industry; the Computer Assisted Product Selection (CAPSTM) electronic components database and tools business, including CAPS Expert, from PartMiner Worldwide, and the digital oil and gas pipeline and infrastructure information business from Hild Technology Services. In March 2012, the Company acquired IMS Research. In March 2012, the Company acquired BDW Automotive GmbH. I! n May 2012, it acquired Xedar Corporation, a developer and provider of geospatial information products and services. In July 2012, the Company acquired CyberRegs business from Citation Technologies, Inc. In July 2012, the Company acquired GlobalSpec, Inc. On April 16, 2011, IHS acquired ODS-Petrodata (Holdings) Ltd. ODS-Petrodata is a provider of data, information, and market intelligence to the offshore energy industry. On April 26, 2011, it acquired Dyadem International, Ltd. (Dyadem). Dyadem offers operational risk management and quality risk management solutions. On May 2, 2011, the Company acquired Chemical Market Associates, Inc. (CMAI). CMAI is a leading provider of market and business advisory services for the worldwide petrochemical, specialty chemicals, fertilizer, plastics, fibers, and chlor-alkali industries. On August 10, 2011, the Company acquired Seismic Micro-Technology (SMT). SMT offers Windows-based exploration and production software, and its solutions are used by geoscientists worldwide to evaluate potential reservoirs and plan field development. On November 10, 2011, it acquired Purvin & Gertz. Purvin & Gertz is a global advisory and market research firm that provides technical, commercial, and strategic advice to international clients in the petroleum refining, natural gas, natural gas liquids, crude oil and petrochemical industries. Energy and Power IHS covers the technical and economic spectrum of energy and power. Detailed records and forecasts on oil, gas and coal supplies, combined with insights on traditional and emerging energy markets, help enable its customers to make decisions. Its offerings include production information on more than 90 % of the world's oil and gas production in more than 100 countries; oil and gas well data that includes geological information on more than four million current and historic wells worldwide; energy activity data that includes current and future seismic, drilling and development activities in more than 180 countries and 335 hydrocarbon-producing regions worldwide; information and research to develop unconventional hydrocarbon resources-shale gas, coal bed methane and heavy oil; knowledge of energy markets, strategies, industry trends, and companies; information and research summits, such as IHS CERAWeek and the IHS Herold Pacesetters Energy Conference, which offer decision makers the opportunity to interact with its experts, and critical information about analysis of coal, nuclear and renewables, including wind, solar, and hydro power. The Company competes with DrillingInfo, Inc., TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, Accenture, Deloitte, Wood Mackenzie, Ltd., Schlumberger Limited, Halliburton, LMKR and Paradigm Ltd. Design and Supply Chain IHS Design and Supply Chain solutions provide information for customers that allow them to manage a product from conception to research and development to production, maintenance and disposal. It also provides companies access to specifications and standards. The Company�� offerings include market and technology research and analysis; standards management solutions, including more than 370 commercial and military standards and specification publishing organizations; advanced product design and process engineering; strategic product content and supply chain management; environmentally compliant product design; counterfeit part risk mitigation; product performance and cost optimization, and indirect parts and maintenance, repair, and operations logistics, inventory and cash flow optimization tables, including wind, solar, and hydro power. The Company competes with SAI Global and Thomson Reuters Corporation. Defense, Risk and Security IHS delivers open source intelligence in the areas of global defense, risk, and security, including maritime domain awareness. IHS offers open source intelligence solutions for military planners, national security analysts, and defense and maritime industry strategy and planning professionals. The Company�� offerings include military and national security assessments; defense equipment and technology information; defense budgets and procurement forecasting; defense industry trends and analysis; terrorism and insurgency analysis; global commercial ship identification and specifications; live tracking of commercial ship movements; shipping and shipbuilding markets and forecasts, and ports and port security information. The Company competes with McGraw-Hill, Gannett, Forecast International and Control Risks Group. EHS and Sustainability IHS EHS and Sustainability solutions support critical decisions around environmental, health and safety, operational risk, greenhouse gas and energy, product stewardship and corporate responsibility. The Company�� offerings include global and local software implementations; material compliance and lifecycle information content; strategic planning services in greenhouse gas management and cap-and-trade; compliance and verification expertise for local, regional, national, and international EHS and sustainability management system responsibilities, and risk management assessment across a range of industries. The Company competes with SAP and Verisk. Country and Industry Forecasting IHS delivers detailed forecasts and analysis of economic conditions within political, economic, legal, tax, operational, and security environments worldwide. Additionally, IHS provides forecasts, market-sizing, and risk assessments for a number of industries worldwide, including aerospace and defense, agriculture, automotive, chemicals, construction, consumer and retail, energy, finance, government, healthcare and pharmaceutical, military and security, mining and metals, commerce and transport, and telecommunications. Its offerings include in-depth analysis of the business conditions, economic prospects, and risks in more than 200 countries and more than 170 industries; security risk analysis and daily updates on both Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and sovereign risk ratings in more than 200 countries; event-driven updates of its risk analysis and ratings; short-, medium- and long-term forecasts for business planning and decision making; historical information since 1970; Deep market intelligence for the automotive, agriculture, chemicals, construction, consumer goods, commerce and transport, energy, financial, healthcare and pharmaceutical, telecommunications, and steel industries; and scenario explorations examining alternative outcomes to the questions impacting global business. The Company competes with Economist Intelligence Unit and Moody's Corporation. Commodities, Pricing and Cost IHS offers information, forecasts, and analysis to help its customers understand the how, when, and what of commodity prices and labor costs. IHS analysts monitor and forecast more than 1,300 global price, wage, and manufacturing costs across the regions for sectors, including energy products, chemicals, steel, nonferrous metals, industrial machinery and equipment, electronic components, paper and packaging, transportation, and building materials. Its offerings include analysis and forecasts for more than 1,300 global price, wage, and manufacturing costs; market intelligence of drivers, assumptions, and risks relating to commodity and service prices; cost and price data with actionable insights; forecasts covering global spot market prices, wages, and material costs; advisory forums to assist in monitoring, forecasting, and managing power and energy portfolio project costs, and consulting capabilities that enable clients to source materials. Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Rebecca Lipman]

     Provides critical information and insight products and services. Market cap of $5.53B. EPS growth (5-year CAGR) at 22%. According to Morgan Stanley: "Almost 80% of the business is subscription-based, providing high revenue visibility. Customers operate their businesses more effectively with the data and analytics that IHS supplies, and the company has vast databases that would likely be cost-prohibitive and extremely difficult for competitors to reconstruct."

Saturday, August 24, 2013

Your Clients̢۪ Biggest Financial Regrets

Regret is one of the most powerful emotions, and it affects everyone everywhere, particularly when it comes to financial planning. According to a recent survey undertaken by The deVere Group, a U.K.-based financial advisory firm that works with wealthy individuals across the globe, high-net-worth individuals are no exception when it comes to regret. What they regret most is not having put in place a regularly reviewed personal financial plan earlier in their lives. Their second biggest financial regret lies in inconsistently scrutinizing their personal investments and taking on too much unnecessary debt.

This has become a concern to many wealthy individuals after the 2008 financial crisis, says Nigel Greene, founder and chief executive of the deVere Group. “It’s clear that wealthy individuals value highly the benefits and opportunities that long-term financial planning brings them and their families, and that they understand the importance of routinely reviewing those plans to ensure that they always remain ‘on track’ to reach their financial goals,” Greene says.

Even though high-net-worth individuals have greater access to a financial advisor and a greater financial cushion than others for any bad decisions, the regret they feel with respect to not having planned thoroughly can impede their ability to future financial planning as much as those who aren’t so wealthy, he says.

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“It’s up to financial planners, then, to work through that regret and to get people to understand that no matter how big a regret they might have with something they have done or not done in the past, a bigger regret is coming if they don’t do something now,” he says.

The impact of financial regret is even greater for those whose means are not so extensive, says Richard Peterson, managing director at MarketPsych.

Whenever people regret a financial decision, they tend to evaluate themselves compared to others and more importantly, compared to where they think they should be and where they’re at.

“This can result in a kind of paralysis that stops people from taking any more financial decisions,” Peterson says. “After the financial crisis, everyone felt a sense of regret and it came together to make this huge pool of common regret.”

Although many people have moved beyond the financial crisis – in fact, Peterson says, some are now ruing the fact that they weren’t as financially adventurous as they could have been when the market was rallying – advisors will always have to address their clients’ regrets, because regret happens in both negative and positive market environments.

“The first step an advisor needs to take is to acknowledge the regret and then work to push it out, because regret is always diffused by the passage of time,” Peterson says. “An advisor needs to move their clients to the state of reappraisal, and get them to think of future decisions they will take.”

And the best way to do that is to give clients a sense of what they can and can’t control going forward.

“People can control what loans they take out, for example, how much they borrow and so on, but they can’t control larger things like the direction of interest rates, and advisors need to make their clients aware that despite those larger happenings, they still need to take decisions for their financial future,” Peterson says.

Monday, August 19, 2013

Investors with 3-4 yr goals should infuse debt in portfolio

Gaurav Mashruwala, CFP
If you are investing for three to four years, pick up a fund which has about 20-30% into equity and rest into a debt based instrument.

Gaurav Mashruwala

CFP

"Pick up a fund which should have about 20-30% into equity and rest into a debt based instrument," he said in an interview to CNBC-TV18.

He says that investors who have a timeframe of more than five years can look to be more aggressive and invest solely in equity funds, but other debt should be included.

Below is an edited transcript of his interview.

Q: An investor wants to invest Rs 10,000 per month for a time frame of three- four years. How should he allocate the money?

A: If you are saying that after about three to four years you would want a kind of corpus which you can use as seed capital to start your own enterprise here is my recommendation. Pick up a mutual fund scheme which would have a combination of debt and equity, that's because you are saying three to four years. If it goes beyond five I would probably encourage you to take a slightly aggressive call on an equity fund, but since you are saying three to four years pick up a fund which should have about 20-30% into equity and rest into a debt based instrument.

There are several mutual fund companies which has fund of funds which can help or you can take two separate funds. A debt fund is one which predominantly invests into government securities and bonds, and an equity fund which puts into stock market. So either take two separate funds or make a combination of that. As and when you require money just start redeeming from that. But you can keep investing, you can give 12 post dated checks or you can give an ECS mandate to a mutual fund company and they will keep debiting your account and keep investing for you based on NAV and at the end of three years you would have a corpus.

Sunday, August 18, 2013

PVH Corp. Upgraded to Strong Buy - Analyst Blog

On Jul 13, Zacks Investment Research upgraded PVH Corporation (PVH) to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).

Why the Upgrade?

PVH Corp. has been witnessing rising earnings estimates on the back of strong first-quarter fiscal 2013 results and an impressive guidance for the current fiscal. Moreover, this well-known apparel retailer surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last 28 quarters with an average beat of 10.1%. The long-term expected earnings growth rate for this stock is 14.3%.

PVH Corp. came up with strong first-quarter results on Jun 12, 2013, with adjusted earnings per share rising 43.6% year over year to $1.91, thereby beating its own guidance of $1.33 and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.37. The upside was primarily driven by strong revenue growth resulting from the acquisition of The Warnaco Group, Inc. and improved margins.

During the quarter, total revenue of the company (including sales return of $30.0 million related to certain Warnaco wholesale customers) jumped 33.8% to $1,910.2 million, compared with $1,427.4 million in the year-ago quarter. The year-over-year surge in revenue was attributable to robust sales performances across all segments of the company.

Based on solid first-quarter performance, the company remains optimistic about achieving its targeted sales and earnings per share guidance for fiscal 2013. Therefore, PVH Corp. reaffirmed its fiscal 2013 revenue and earnings outlook of $8.2 billion and $7.00 per share, respectively.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2013 increased 1.1% to $7.10 per share as most of the estimates were revised upwards over the last 60 days. For fiscal 2014, the estimates moved higher over the same time period, lifting the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.2% to $8.23 per share.

Other Stocks to Consider

Apart from PVH Corp., other stocks worth a look in the retail industry include G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. (GIII), Maidenform Brands, Inc. (MFB) and Michael Kors Holding Ltd. (KORS). All of ! them carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Friday, August 16, 2013

Hot Energy Companies To Own For 2014

With shares of General Electric (NYSE:GE) trading around $24, is General Electric�an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let�� analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

General Electric is a diversified industrial, technology, and financial services company that operates worldwide. The products and services of the company range from aircraft engines, power generation, water processing, and household appliances to medical imaging, business and consumer financing and industrial products. General Electric�� segments include Energy Infrastructure, Aviation, Healthcare, Transportation, Home & Business Solutions, and GE Capital. General Electric is a leading provider of a wide range of products and many are essential in daily lives of consumers and companies around the world.

Hot Energy Companies To Own For 2014: Santa Fe Metals Corp(SFM.V)

Santa Fe Metals Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of precious and base metal properties primarily in Mexico. The company principally holds a 100% interest in the Cuatro Cienegas copper property that consists of 6 concessions totaling approximately 3,408 hectares located northeast of the city of Torreon in the State of Coahuila, Mexico. It also focuses on the acquisition of producing or near-term producing gold properties. The company was formerly known as Tequila Minerals Corp. and changed its name to Santa Fe Metals Corp. in February 2008. Santa Fe Metals Corp. was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.

Hot Energy Companies To Own For 2014: John Bean Technologies Corporation (JBT)

John Bean Technologies Corporation provides technology solutions for the food processing and air transportation industries in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, JBT FoodTech and JBT AeroTech. The JBT FoodTech segment offers industrial food processing solutions and services used in the food processing industry. Its product offerings include freezer solutions for the freezing and chilling of meat, seafood, poultry, ready-to-eat meals, fruits, vegetables, and bakery products; protein processing solutions that portion, coat, and cook poultry, meat, seafood, vegetable, and bakery products; in-container processing solutions for fruits, vegetables, soups, sauces, dairy, and pet food products, as well as ready-to-eat meals in various packages; and fruit processing solutions that extract, concentrate, and aseptically process citrus, tomato, and other fruits. This segment markets its solutions and services to multi-national and regional industrial fo od processing companies. The JBT AeroTech segment provides ground support equipment for cargo loading, aircraft deicing, and aircraft towing; gate equipment for passenger boarding, and on the ground aircraft power and cooling; airport services for the maintenance of airport equipment, systems, and facilities; military equipment for cargo loading, aircraft towing, and on the ground aircraft cooling; and automatic guided vehicles for material handling in the automotive, printing, warehouse, and hospital industries. This segment markets its solutions and services to airport authorities, passenger airlines, airfreight and ground handling companies, and military forces. John Bean Technologies Corporation sells and markets its products and services through direct sales force, independent distributors, and sales representatives. The company is based in Chicago, Illinois. John Bean Technologies Corporation operates independently of FMC Technologies, Inc. as of July 31, 2008.

Top 10 Financial Companies To Watch For 2014: CTI Logistics Ltd(CLX.AX)

CTI Logistics Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of logistics and transport services in Australia. The company?s transport services include adhoc courier, permanent hire vehicle, permanent run, parcel distribution, taxi truck, heavy haulage, container transport, fleet management, line haul, and freight forwarding services. It also offers warehousing and logistics services, such as general warehousing, pick and pack operations, distribution, container packing and unpacking, temperature controlled storage, wine logistics, minerals and energy logistics, quarantine shrink wrapping, and supply depot services. In addition, the company offers other services comprising records management, destruction bins, shredding and recycling, alarm installation and service, access control systems, CCTV installation and service, and alarm monitoring services. Further, it is involved in the rental of property; manufacture and sale of plastic products under the Au splastics brand name; and provision of security services. The company operates through its fleet of 540 vehicles, 41,000 square meters of warehousing space, and 3,500 square meters of temperature controlled warehouse space. CTI Logistics Limited is based in West Perth, Australia.

Thursday, August 15, 2013

Another Rough Week of News for Millennials and Their Money

Young adult man, wearing leather jacket, showing his empty pocketsAlamy It's not news that -- workers born after 1981 -- have it hard, economically speaking. But in the past week, two new reports have cast light on just how tough it is out there for the youngest generation in the job market. Instead of building on their careers, paying off their student loans, and working on buying their first homes, the largest generational cohort in history are -- according to studies released by Pew Research and the Department of Education -- increasingly living at home, eking out a living at low-paying jobs, and falling behind on their student loans. These economic woes are just more of the same for Gen Y. They were already carrying the highest student loan debt in history, and they graduated into the worst job market since the Great Depression. According to an analysis by the Associated Press, 53.6 percent of college grads 25 and under are either unemployed or underemployed. And on average, they're carrying $26,600 in student loan debt. A recent report from the Department of Education makes it clear just how dire the problem is becoming: According to the DOE, 22 percent of borrowers enrolled in the direct federal student loans program are in default or forbearance. This, incidentally, matches the overall rates of student loan delinquency. In other words, more than one in five borrowers aren't making enough money to meet their obligations. Apparently, these recent grads also aren't blowing all their money on rent: According to a study released last week by Pew Research, 36 percent of millennials are living at home with their parents. By comparison, 32 percent were doing so in 2007, on the eve of the Great Recession and 34 percent were doing so in 2009, when the recession officially ended. In other words, for millennials (and their parents), the problem is getting worse, not better. Indeed, this is the highest percentage of young adults living at home since the 1960s. As we've reported in the past, federal and state governments are working on proposals to help ease the student loan debt crisis. Pay as You Earn, Obama's federal program, caps debt repayment at 10 percent of a borrower's discretionary income, and forgives any debt that remains after 20 years of payments. Meanwhile, Oregon's Pay It Forward program will let borrowers attend a state university tuition-free, but will require that they pay 3 percent of their income for 20 years. These programs, while attractive, will bear fruit down the line, but for now, the economic landscape for millennials looks bleak -- and it doesn't show many signs of improving any time soon.

One solution is to take advantage of some of the loan forgiveness opportunities that are already out there. The military, the federal government, and state governments offer dozens of programs that will wipe away at least part of your debt, in return for a few years of service. Most are tied to specific, in-demand professions in areas such as health care, law enforcement, and education. but others -- like the military, the Peace Corps, and AmeriCorps -- are open to people from a variety of majors and disciplines.

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Best Warren Buffett Stocks To Watch Right Now

"Price is what you pay. Value is what you get." These words spoken by Warren Buffett come to mind when looking at how much people across the world pay for health care.

Are the nations that pay much more for health care than others also getting commensurately more value? Let's look at the seven countries with the highest health care costs among the 34 member nations of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, or OECD.

7. Denmark
Danes pay greatly for health care when compared to other countries. Denmark spends 11.1% of the country's GDP on health care, or around $4,464 per person. However, the country's life expectancy is 79.3 years, below the OECD average of 79.8.

6. Switzerland
The Alps aren't the only things reaching lofty heights in Switzerland. The nation spends 11.4% of its GDP on health care, high enough to claim the No. 6 spot on our list. Switzerland's per capita spending of $5,270 ranks third-highest among all OECD countries. The Swiss might be getting a good return on this spending, though. The nation's life expectancy of 82.6 ranks as the second-highest of all OECD nations after Japan.

Best Warren Buffett Stocks To Watch Right Now: Transgaming Inc (TNG.V)

TransGaming Inc. engages in the development, sale, and licensing of software portability products that facilitate the deployment of games across various platforms primarily in Canada, the United States, and Europe. The company�s products include Cider, which enables PC games for Apple�s Mac platform; SwiftShader, a 3D software renderer that supports multi-core rendering for developers and systems providers; GameTree Mac, a digital distribution platform for Mac games; and GameTree TV, an interactive entertainment solution for the distribution of digital content to Smart TV. It also provides post-contract customer support services; and online subscription and professional services for the development of video games, as well as sells online video games. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

Best Warren Buffett Stocks To Watch Right Now: Mesa Laboratories Inc.(MLAB)

Mesa Laboratories, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets instruments and disposable products utilized primarily in healthcare, pharmaceutical, food and beverage, medical device, and petrochemical industries. The company offers DATATRACE data loggers that are used in critical manufacturing, quality control, and validation applications to measure temperature, humidity, and pressure inside a process or inside a product during manufacturing; and biological indicators and chemical indicators used to assess the effectiveness of sterilization processes, including steam, gas, hydrogen peroxide, and radiation under the Mesa, Apex, SGM Biotech, and Raven brands. It also provides Torqo torque testing systems, which are used to measure bottle cap tightness in the beverage and pharmaceutical industries; Medical meters, which are used for quality control in dialysis clinics and dialysis machine manufacturing operations; and Nusonics concentration analyzers, pipeline interface detector s, and flow meter products used in the chemical, food, pharmaceutical, and plastics industries. It sells its products through direct sales, marketing staff, and distributors in the United States, Europe, Africa, Australia, Asia, South America, Canada, and Mexico. Mesa Laboratories, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Lakewood, Colorado.

10 Best Tech Stocks For 2014: Staples Inc.(SPLS)

Staples, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an office products company. The company offers various office supplies and services, office machines and related products, computers and related products, and office furniture under Staples, Quill, and other proprietary brands. It also provides copy and print services to retail and delivery customers, as well as technology services through its EasyTech business. The company sells and delivers office products and services directly to businesses and consumers through Internet retail, including Staples.com and Quill.com, as well as through contract sales force, direct mail catalog business, and retail stores. As of January 28, 2012, it operated 2,295 retail stores in 48 states and the District of Columbia in the United States; and 10 provinces and 2 territories in Canada, as well as in Belgium, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, the United Kingdom, China, Argentina, and Australia. The company also operated 124 distribution and fulfillment centers in 29 states in the United States; 7 provinces in Canada; and in Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, China, Argentina, Brazil, and Australia. Staples, Inc. was founded in 1986 and is based in Framingham, Massachusetts.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Dan Moskowitz]

    Staples had been a long-term winner, but it has underperformed the market during a massive bull run over the past several years. If a stock can�� trade higher with the majority of the market in such an environment, then there is an underlying problem with the company or industry. In this case, it�� the industry. Staples currently has to deal with weak international operations, a weak consumer in the United States, and amazingly fierce competition. All that said, with effective cost-cutting measures in place and increased market share likely after the Office Depot/OfficeMax merger, there is short-term potential.

Best Warren Buffett Stocks To Watch Right Now: Solco Ltd(SOO.AX)

Solco Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution of solar panels and water pumping products in Australia and internationally. It products include GridPower solar power kits that provide electricity to homes or businesses, as well as delivers surplus power back into the electrical grid; and Sun Mill solar pump kits, which combine solar panels with pumps to deliver the required supply of water. The company also provides various inverters; and Morning Star for off grid and recreational applications. In addition, Solco produces turnkey systems for producing polymer hot water systems; and engages in the power generation projects through strategic joint venture partnerships. It offers its products to corporate and government clients, and residential customers. The company was formerly known as Solar Energy Systems. Solco Ltd was founded in 1989 and is based in Belmont, Australia.

Best Warren Buffett Stocks To Watch Right Now: ValueVision Media Inc.(VVTV)

ValueVision Media, Inc., an interactive retailer, engages in marketing, selling, and distributing products to consumers through televisions (TVs), telephone, online, mobile, and social media. The company offers fine and fashion jewelries comprising gold, sterling silver, and platinum products; gemstone products; and men?s and women?s watches. It also offers home and electronics products, such as home decor, mattresses, bed and bath textiles, kitchen appliances, dining accessories, and a various furnishings; and consumer electronics, including TVs, computers, GPS devices, cameras, camcorders, and video game systems. In addition, the company offers beauty products, such as skincare, cosmetics, and hair care products; and health and fitness products comprising nutritional supplements, and workout gear and accessories. Further, it offers fashion apparel, outerwear, and accessories, including handbags and footwear. Its principal form of product exposure is its TV shopping net work, ShopNBC, which markets brand name and private label products. The company?s other distribution channels also include its Internet retailing Web sites, such as ShopNBC.com and ShopNBC.TV, which provide a range of consumer merchandise; and digital platforms comprising mobile and social media. ValueVision Media, Inc. has strategic alliances with GE Capital Equity Investments, Inc. and NBC Universal, Inc. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Eden Prairie, Minnesota.

Best Warren Buffett Stocks To Watch Right Now: Devro Int(DVO.L)

Devro plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of collagen casings for the food industry in Europe, the Americas, and the Asia/Pacific. The company offers edible collagen and non-edible collagen casings under the Devro, Coria, Cutisin, Edicol, Ralex, and Devro Medical brand names. It also manufactures and markets collagen films, collagen gel, plastic casings, and purified collagen raw materials for medical and cosmetic use. In addition, the company distributes various related products, principally cellulose, fibrous, and plastic casings. It offers its products primarily to sausage producers, consumers, and retailers, as well as to food processors and local specialists making handcrafted products through a network of distributors and agents. Devro plc is headquartered in Chryston, the United Kingdom.

Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Best Canadian Companies To Own For 2014

Aimia (AIM) Inc.�� decision to move its Aeroplan reward-partnership to Toronto-Dominion (TD) Bank is a blow to Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, which stands to lose customers and as much as C$3 billion ($2.9 billion) in credit-card balances.

Toronto-Dominion, Canada�� second-largest bank, conditionally agreed yesterday to become the primary credit-card partner for Aimia�� Aeroplan program starting Jan. 1, replacing an accord with Canadian Imperial that expires at year end. CIBC, Canada�� fifth-largest lender, has the right to match the terms of the new agreement by Aug. 9 to retain the partnership.

��t hamstrings CIBC,��Cameron Webster, who helps manage C$250 million including Toronto-Dominion shares at Sandstone Asset Management Inc. in Calgary, said yesterday in a telephone interview. ��t�� a bit of a dent to CIBC and it creates the potential for them to lose some customers.��

Best Canadian Companies To Own For 2014: Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.(RCL)

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. operates in the cruise vacation industry worldwide. It owns five cruise brands, which comprise Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, Pullmantur, Azamara Club Cruises, and CDF Croisi�es de France. The Royal Caribbean International brand provides various itineraries and cruise lengths with options for onboard dining, entertainment, and other onboard activities primarily for the contemporary segment. It offers surf simulators, water parks, ice skating rinks, rock climbing walls, and shore excursions at each port of call, as well as boulevards with shopping, dining, and entertainment venues. The Celebrity Cruises brand operates onboard upscale ships that offer luxurious accommodations, fine dining, personalized services, spa facilities, venue featuring live grass, and glass blowing studio for the premium segment, as well as resells computers and other media devices. The Pullmantur brand provides an array of onboard activities and serv ices to guests, including exercise facilities, swimming pools, beauty salons, gaming facilities, shopping, dining, complimentary beverages, and entertainment venues serving the contemporary segment of the Spanish, Portuguese, and Latin American cruise markets. The Azamara Club Cruises brand offers various onboard services, amenities, gaming facilities, fine dining, spa and wellness, butler service for suites, and interactive entertainment venues for the up-market segment of the North American, United Kingdom, German, and Australian markets. The CDF Croisieres de France brand offers seasonal itineraries to the Mediterranean; and various onboard services, amenities, entertainment venues, exercise and spa facilities, fine dining, and gaming facilities for the contemporary segment of the French cruise market. As of December 31, 2011, the company operated 39 ships with a total capacity of approximately 92,650 berths. Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. was founded in 1968 and is headqua rtered in Miami, Florida.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Hawkinvest]

    Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) is one of Carnival's competitors in the cruise industry. Royal does not have the same issues as Carnival in terms of the Costa Concordia incident, but it could be impacted by discounting in cruise fares, as well as higher fuel costs. Royal Caribbean shares were recently downgraded to a strong sell by Zacks Investment Research, and a recent analyst report states:

    We are a bit doubtful about the cruising sector in the near term after Carnival's ship Costa Concordia ran aground in mid-January on Italy's west coast. The disaster hit the industry in the wake of the wave season between January and March. The recent tragedy resulted in subdued bookings. Royal Caribbean's overall booking volumes in North America came down. In Europe, where the incident took place, the cut in bookings has been steeper. Business in APMEA was also down slightly. The company expects a 20% decline in new bookings during the peak of wave season.

    This stock was trading below $26 in early January, but it has rallied with the markets. With oil prices trending higher, and the stock at the high end of the recent trading range, the shares look vulnerable to a pullback.

    Here are some key points for RCL:

    Current share price: $29.89

    The 52 week range is $18.70 to $45.45

    Earnings estimates for 2011: $2.32 per share

    Earnings estimates for 2012: $2.94 per share

    Annual dividend: 40 cents per share which yields about 1.3%

Best Canadian Companies To Own For 2014: NEW GOLD INC.(NGD)

New Gold Inc. engages in the acquisition, exploration, extraction, processing, and reclamation of mineral properties. The company primarily explore for gold, silver, and copper deposits. Its operating properties include the Mesquite gold mine in the United States; the Cerro San Pedro gold-silver mine in Mexico; and the Peak gold-copper mine in Australia. The company also has development projects, including the New Afton gold, silver, and copper project in Canada; and a 30% interest in the El Morro copper-gold project in Chile. The company was formerly known as DRC Resources Corporation and changed its name to New Gold Inc. in June 2005. New Gold Inc. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Christopher Barker]

    This stock has set the gold standard for share price appreciation among gold miners, advancing more than 140% since I introduced Fools to the new face of New Gold back in January 2010. Looking out over the long-term horizon, New Gold has constructed a gorgeous development pipeline to complement its trio of producing gold mines, featuring: a low-risk 30% stake in Goldcorp's El Morro project in Chile, the New Afton copper and gold project in British Columbia (with production scheduled to begin mid-2012), and the recently acquired Blackwater project north of New Afton.

    Although I expect the Blackwater deposit to expand considerably with further exploration, the project's initial indicated gold resource of 1.8 million ounces already leaves New Gold in command of 14.7 million ounces of measured and indicated gold resource. Tossing in copious supplies of by-product metals -- most notably 83.5 million ounces of silver and 3.5 billion pounds of copper -- New Gold is positioned to enjoy consistently low production costs throughout its sustained growth trajectory.

Hot Tech Stocks To Buy Right Now: Oshkosh Truck Corporation(OSK)

Oshkosh Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets a range of specialty vehicles, and vehicle bodies worldwide. Its Defense segment manufactures severe-duty, heavy, and medium-payload tactical trucks for the Department of Defense, including hauling tanks, missile systems, ammunition, fuel, and troops and cargo for combat units. The company?s Access Equipment segment offers aerial work platforms and telehandlers used in a range of construction, agricultural, industrial, institutional, and general maintenance applications. This segment also manufactures towing and recovery equipment and related parts; and leases equipments for short-term to rental companies. The company?s Fire and Emergency segment provides custom and commercial fire apparatus, and emergency vehicles, including pumpers, aerial and ladder trucks, tankers, rescue vehicles, wildland rough terrain response vehicles, mobile command and control centers, bomb squad vehicles, hazardous materials control vehicl es, and other emergency response vehicles. This segment also offers snow removal vehicles in airports; custom ambulances for private and public transporters, and fire departments; mobile medical trailers for medical centers and service providers; mobile command and control centers and simulation units; and vehicles for broadcasters, TV stations, broadcast production, and radio stations. Oshkosh Corporation?s Commercial segment manufactures refuse collection vehicles for the waste services industry; front and rear discharge concrete mixers, and portable and stationary concrete batch plants for the concrete ready-mix industry; and field service vehicles and truck-mounted cranes for the construction, equipment dealer, building supply, utility, tire service, and mining industries. The company was formerly known as Oshkosh Truck Corporation and changed its name to Oshkosh Corporation in February 2008. Oshkosh Corporation was founded in 1917 and is based in Oshkosh, Wisconsin.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Stephen]

    This company has gotten shellacked lately as a reduced government budget could put a damper on future profits. Other factors are also weighing down on the stock as describedhere. For example, the company was able to win an important project from the government for armored vehicles but may actually be losing money due to higher than expected costs. Regardless, Oshkosh also sells some products commercially, most importantly trucks, so there’s still plenty of reason to like this company. Terex (TEX), who se business is reasonably similar to Oshkosh’s, lags in certain notable metrics. For instance, both gross margin and operating margin are lower. Additionally, 4 of the past 5 quarters have not been profitable for Terex, while Oshkosh brought in net income for all of those same quarters. OSK is also very attractive for its price/earnings growth and price to sales ratios, which are 0.78 and 0.22 respectively. Perhaps OSK’s best stat though is its price to book ratio of 1.01, which is pretty much a steal for any non-financial. Oshkosh’s cash flows are also reasonably strong, although debt levels are a bit worrisome.< /span> Regardless, with a beta of 2.50, look this stock to skyrocket once the economy recovers in 2012.

Best Canadian Companies To Own For 2014: Gildan Activewear Inc.(GIL)

Gildan Activewear Inc. engages in the manufacture and sale of apparel products primarily in the United States, Canada, and Europe. It sells T-shirts, fleece, and sport shirts to wholesale distributors under the Gildan brand name. The company also provides its activewear products for work and school uniforms and athletic team wear, and other purposes to convey individual, group, and team identity. In addition, it offers undecorated products to branded apparel companies and retailers; and underwear products. Further, the company markets its sock products under the various brands, including Gold Toe, PowerSox, SilverToe, Auro, All Pro, GT, and the Gildan brand. The company was formerly known as Textiles Gildan Inc. and changed its name to Gildan Activewear Inc. in March 1995. Gildan Activewear Inc. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Montreal, Canada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Matthews]

    Gildan Activewear is a definite leader in apparel manufacturing. The company has great growth and solid profitability in a market where it is tough to create economic moats. It offers a compelling 1.5% dividend, and we believe that the company has upside to our price target of $36. The company should be able to make a nice move higher from here as it outperforms the industry in growth with sales and earnings outpacing the industry exceptionally. Further, it is considerably undervalued with a PE at 10 vs. an industry average around 20. Value and growth in one...can't beat it.

    Allocation: $2000

    Entry: $19.85

    Target: $21.85, $24.00, and $36

Sunday, August 11, 2013

5 Best Low Price Stocks To Buy Right Now

When Google (NASDAQ: GOOG  ) announced its new Chromecast device yesterday, tech sites exploded with initial reviews. Wired even called it "Google's Miracle Device." I wouldn't go that far just yet, but there are two reasons why the small stick could disrupt its streaming competitors.

Priced to sell
The first and probably the most obvious selling point for the Chromecast is its ridiculously low price: $35. That's significantly lower than Apple TV and even $15 less than Roku's cheapest streaming box. Google chose the perfect price point for launching such a device, considering its Google TV has never taken off and Apple TVs and Rokus already dominate the market.

Source: Google.

5 Best Low Price Stocks To Buy Right Now: Sino Clean Energy Inc.(SCEI)

Sino Clean Energy Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a third party commercial producer and distributor of coal-water slurry fuel (CWSF) in the People?s Republic of China. The company?s CWSF products are primarily used to fuel boilers and furnaces to generate steam and heat for residential and industrial applications. It sells its products directly to various customers, including industrial, commercial, residential, and government organizations. The company is headquartered in Xi?an, China.

5 Best Low Price Stocks To Buy Right Now: Umeco Plc(UMC.L)

Umeco plc provides advanced composite materials primarily to the aerospace and defense, wind energy, recreation, and automotive industries. The company involves in the development, manufacture, and supply of structural materials, such as prepregs for components and tooling, adhesive films/pastes, cross-plied face sheets, and honeycomb flat panels. It also offers a range of process materials, including bagging films, release films, peel plies, release fabrics, breathers, bleeders, sealant tapes, pressure sensitive tapes, vacuum valves, and hoses for temperatures and resin systems, PMA structural foams, custom shaped heat-sealed vacuum bags for various applications, as well as materials for wind turbine applications; and rubber construction materials, such as re-usable vacuum bags, pressure bags, and intensifiers. In addition, the company designs and manufactures large scale composite tooling; and offers engineering training and consultancy services to the composites industr y. Further, it distributes polyester resin and glass fiber; consumable short shelf-life hazardous goods; and electronic test equipment for testing fuels and heavy oils in the petrochemical industry. The company operates in Europe, the United States, and internationally. Umeco plc is based in Leamington Spa, the United Kingdom.

Top 5 Small Cap Stocks To Own For 2014: Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd(RDY)

Dr. Reddy?s Laboratories Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a pharmaceutical company. It produces finished dosage forms, active pharmaceutical ingredients and intermediates, and biotechnology products. The company also conducts research in the areas of cancer, diabetes, cardiovascular, inflammation, and bacterial infection. In addition, it involves in the contract manufacture generic prescription and over-the-counter products for branded and generic companies in the United States. The company primarily focuses on therapeutic categories of cardiovascular, diabetes management, gastro-intestinal, and pain management. It markets its products in India, the United States, Europe, and the Russian Federation. The company has a co-development and commercialization agreement with Rheoscience A/S for the development and commercialization of Balaglitazone/DRF 2593, a partial PPAR-gamma agonist for the treatment of type 2 diabetes; an agreement with ClinTec Internatio nal for the development of an anti-cancer compound, DRF 1042; collaboration with the National Cancer Institute in Maryland; and an agreement with Argenta Discovery Limited for the joint development and commercialization of a novel approach to the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. It also has an agreement with 7TM Pharma for drug discovery collaboration on selected drug targets; and an agreement with GlaxoSmithKline plc to develop and market pharmaceuticals for the treatment of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, oncology, gastroenterology, and pain management. Dr. Reddy?s Laboratories Limited was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Hyderabad, India.

5 Best Low Price Stocks To Buy Right Now: Marine Petroleum Trust(MARPS)

Marine Petroleum Trust, through its subsidiary, Marine Petroleum Corporation, operates as a royalty trust in the United States. It holds an overriding royalty interest in oil, natural gas, and other mineral leasehold interests located in the Gulf of Mexico acquired by Chevron U.S.A., Inc. The company, through its 32.6% interest in Tidelands Royalty Trust ?B?, owns interest in 5 leases covering 22,948 acres. It has lease interests covering approximately 226,564 gross acres. The company was founded in 1956 and is based in Dallas, Texas.

5 Best Low Price Stocks To Buy Right Now: Avanir Pharmaceuticals Inc(AVNR)

Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in acquiring, developing, and commercializing novel therapeutic products for the treatment of central nervous system disorders primarily in the United States. The company primarily offers NUEDEXTA, a unique proprietary combination of dextromethorphan and low-dose quinidine for the treatment of pseudobulbar affect. Its product line also comprises AVP-923 in Phase II clinical trial for the treatment of central neuropathic pain in patients with multiple sclerosis; and in Phase III trial for the treatment of patients with diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain. In addition, the company provides Docosanol 10% cream, an over-the-counter product for cold sores treatment. Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Aliso Viejo, California.

Thursday, August 8, 2013

Using Index Futures To Predict The Future

An index futures contract binds the parties to an agreed value for the underlying index at a specified future date. For example, the September futures contract for the current year on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index reflects the expected value of that index at the close of business on the third Friday in September. Like any derivative, it's a zero-sum game: One party is long and the other short - and the loser must pay the winner the difference between the agreed index futures price and the index closing value at expiration.

Fair Value of an Index Future
Although index futures are closely correlated to the underlying index, they are not identical. An investor in index futures does not receive (if long) or owe (if short) dividends on the stocks in the index, unlike an investor who buys or sells short the component stocks or an exchange-traded fund that tracks the index.

Index futures trade on margin, too: An investor who buys $100,000 worth of futures must put up around 5% of the principal amount ($5,000) at the outset, whereas an investor in the stock components or an ETF must put up the full $100,000.

The index futures price must equal the underlying index value only at expiration. At any other time, the futures contract has a fair value relative to the index, which reflects the expected dividends forgone (a deduction from the index value) and the financing cost for the difference between the initial margin and the principal amount of the contract (an addition) between the trade date and expiration. When interest rates are low, the dividend adjustment outweighs the financing cost, so fair value for index futures is typically lower than the index value.

Index Futures Arbitrage
Just because index futures have a fair value doesn't mean they trade at that price. Market participants use index futures for many different purposes, including hedging; adjusting asset allocation through index futures overlay programs or transition management; or outright speculation on market direction. Index futures are more liquid than the market in the index's individual components, so investors in a hurry to alter their equity exposure trade index futures - even if the price isn't equal to fair value.

Whenever the index futures price moves away from fair value, it creates a trading opportunity called index arbitrage. The major banks and securities houses maintain computer models that track the ex-dividend calendar for the index components, and factor in the firms' borrowing costs to compute fair value for the index in real time. As soon as the index futures price premium, or discount to fair value, covers their transaction costs (clearing, settlement, commissions and expected market impact) plus a small profit margin, the computers jump in, either selling index futures and buying the underlying stocks if futures trade at a premium, or the reverse if futures trade at a discount.

Index Futures Trading Hours
Index arbitrage keeps the index futures price close to fair value, but only when both index futures and the underlying stocks are trading at the same time. While the stock market opens at 9:30am and closes at 4pm, index futures trade 24/7 on platforms like Globex, an electronic trading system run by CME Group. Liquidity in index futures drops outside stock exchange trading hours because the index arbitrage players can no longer ply their trade. If the futures price gets out of whack, they cannot hedge an index futures purchase or sale through an offsetting sale or purchase of the underlying stocks. But other market participants are still active.

Index Futures Predict the Opening Direction
Suppose good news comes out abroad overnight - the ECB cuts interest rates, or China reports stronger than expected growth in GDP. The local equity markets will probably rise, and investors may anticipate a stronger U.S. market, too. If they buy index futures, the price will go up. And with index arbitrageurs on the sidelines until the U.S. stock market opens, nobody will counteract the buying pressure even if the futures price exceeds fair value. As soon as New York opens, though, the index arbitrageurs will execute whatever trades are needed to bring the index futures price back in line - in this example, by buying the component stocks and selling index futures.

Investors cannot just check whether the futures price is above or below its closing value on the previous day, though. The dividend adjustments to index futures fair value change overnight (they are constant during each day), and the indicated market direction depends on the price of index futures relative to fair value regardless of the preceding close. Ex-dividend dates are not evenly spread over the calendar, either; they tend to cluster around certain dates. On a day when several big index constituents go ex-dividend, index futures may trade above the prior close but still imply a lower opening.

… In the Short-Term
Index futures prices are often an excellent indicator of opening market direction, but the signal works for only a brief period. Trading is typically volatile at the opening, which accounts for a disproportionate amount of total trading volume. If an institutional investor weighs in with a large buy or sell program in multiple stocks, the market impact can overwhelm whatever price movement the index futures indicate. Institutional traders do watch futures prices, of course, but the bigger the orders they have to execute, the less important the index futures direction signal becomes.

Late openings can also disrupt index arbitrage activity. Although the market opens at 9:30am, not every stock starts to trade at once. The opening price is set through an auction procedure, and if the bids and offers do not overlap, the stock remains closed until matching orders come in. Index arbitrage players won't step in until they can execute both sides of their trades, which means the largest - and preferably all - stocks in an index must have opened. The longer index arbitrageurs stay on the sidelines, the greater the chances that other market activity will negate the index futures direction signal.

The Bottom Line
If the futures price suggests the market will rise on the opening, investors who wish to sell that day may want to wait until after the market opens before entering their order, or set a higher price limit. Buyers may want to hold off when index futures predict a lower opening, too. Nothing is guaranteed, however; index futures do predict the opening market direction most of the time, but even the best soothsayers are not always right.

Investors can monitor futures prices and fair values on websites like CNBC or CNN Money, both of which also show pre-market indications for individual stocks (a less reliable indicator due to poor liquidity).

Tuesday, August 6, 2013

Bernanke Speaks, These Stocks Soars

With the circus surrounding JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM  ) CEO Jamie Dimon finally appearing to quiet down, shares of the bank were soaring higher this morning. In addition to JPMorgan's move, financial stocks were lifted higher by comments from Ben Bernanke. The mREIT sector in particular traded higher.

In this video, Motley Fool financial analysts David Hanson and Matt Koppenheffer discuss these topics and tell investors if they are buyers of a few of these hot stocks.

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Monday, August 5, 2013

5 Big Stocks to Trade for Gains

BALTIMORE (Stockpickr) -- As the first trading session kicks off for August, investors are finally getting a taste of summer doldrums.

Stocks have been trading sideways for the past couple of weeks now, after rallying more than 5% from July 1. That horizontal price action isn't necessarily a bad thing, though. After a big move like we've just experienced, consolidation periods give markets a chance to take a breath. They're healthy for rallies.

Historically, summer is the time of the year when the stock market is on snooze. And since that hasn't been the case so far this summer, we're overdue for some dull trading. But just because the broad market is range-bound doesn't mean that all stocks are nodding off. Sure enough, there are still some tradable setups shaping up in a handful of Wall Street's biggest names this week.

Today, we'll take a technical look at five of them.

If you're new to technical analysis, here's the executive summary:

Technicals are a study of the market itself. Since the market is ultimately the only mechanism that determines a stock's price, technical analysis is a valuable tool even in the roughest of trading conditions. Technical charts are used every day by proprietary trading floors, Wall Street's biggest financial firms, and individual investors to get an edge on the market. And research shows that skilled technical traders can bank gains as much as 90% of the time.

Every week, I take an in-depth look at big names that are telling important technical stories. Here's this week's look at five high-volume stocks to trade this week.

Cummins

Diesel engine maker Cummins (CMI) has posted reasonably perfunctory performance year-to-date, climbing 11.75% since the calendar flipped over to January. But zoom out a bit more, and CMI's rally from October looks a whole lot more impressive: Shares are up 38% since Oct. 11.

Now this stock looks well-positioned for another big leg higher.

Cummins is currently in the process of forming a long-term ascending triangle pattern, a price setup that's formed by horizontal resistance above shares at $121 and uptrending support to the downside. Essentially, as CMI bounces in between those two technical levels, it's been getting squeezed closer and closer to a breakout above that resistance price. When that breakout happens, we've got a buy signal for shares.

Over the course of this setup, the 200-day moving average has acted like a proxy for support. That's where I'd recommend keeping a protective stop after the breakout.

Arthur J. Gallagher

We're seeing the same exact price setup in shares of mid-cap insurance broker Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) -- just in the shorter-term. AJG has been forming an ascending triangle setup of its own since the beginning of May, hitting its head on resistance at $45.50. That's the breakout level to watch in shares this week.

Whenever you're looking at any technical price pattern, it's critical to think in terms of buyers and sellers. Ascending triangles and other price pattern names are a good quick way to explain what's going on in this stock, but they're not the reason it's tradable. Instead, it all comes down to supply and demand for shares.

That resistance line at $45.50 is a price where there's an excess of supply of shares; in other words, it's a place where sellers have been more eager to take recent gains and sell their shares than buyers have been to buy. That's what makes the move above it so significant -- a breakout indicates that buyers are finally strong enough to absorb all of the excess supply above that price level. Wait for that signal to happen before you jump into this stock.

Procter & Gamble

Consumer products behemoth Procter & Gamble (PG) is another name that's hitting its head on resistance right now, but this stock chart carries some very different trading implications right now. That's because Procter's resistance is matched on the downside by downtrending support, forming a setup called a "broadening pattern."

Broadening patterns indicate increasing volatility in a stock. The lower series of lows tells us that sellers at holding their ground at $63 and buyers are getting beaten down to decreasing prices as time goes on. Those aren't signs you want to see in a stock you own.

Statistically, broadening patterns tend to resolve to the downside. That means that we're more likely to see PG shove through that dropping support line than we are to see it crack resistance at $81.50. That said, with shares testing resistance this week, we could see this pattern get broken if buyers suddenly crank up their eagerness to own PG. It makes sense to sit on the sidelines until that happens.

Berkshire Hathaway

You don't have to be an expert technical analyst to figure out what's going on in shares of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) -- this big conglomerate has been in a textbook uptrend since the start of 2013. That's propelled shares of the $287 billion firm by more than 30% year-to-date, nearly doubling the broad market's gains over the same period.

Now Berkshire's channel higher is pointing towards an end to the recent churning in shares.

Trendline support is strong in Berkshire Hathaway: this stock has bounced higher each of the last five times shares have tested the bottom of the channel. This week, with shares creeping closer and closer to support, it makes sense to be a buyer on the bounce. Buying off a support bounce makes sense for two big reasons: it's the spot where shares have the furthest to move up before they hit resistance, and it's the spot where the risk is the least (because shares have the least room to move lower before you know you're wrong).

If you decide to jump into Berkshire here, I'd recommend putting in a stop on the other side of the 50-day moving average; it's been a good proxy for support in the last few months.

JPMorgan Chase

Last up is big bank JPMorgan Chase (JPM), a $211 billion name that's giving traders a second shot at a low-risk entry this week.

JPM spent most of this year looking bullish, buoyed by strength in the whole financial sector. There have been plenty of buying opportunities along the way, as JPM took pauses and then broke out above resistance levels -- the most recent came at $55. This week, shares are throwing back to that $55 level. It might not look like it at first glance, but that's a good thing.

A throwback happens when a stock moves back down to test newfound support at its former breakout level -- in this case at $55. And while throwbacks look ominous, they're actually constructive for stock prices because they re-verify the stock's ability to catch a bid at support. Wait for that bounce to signal safe waters before jumping in -- and when you do, keep a tight stop in place.

To see this week's trades in action, check out this week's Must-See Charts portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Jonas Elmerraji in Baltimore.

RELATED LINKS:

>>5 Tech Stocks Triggering Breakouts
>>5 Earnings Short-Squeeze Plays
>>5 REITs to Trade for August Gains

 

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Jonas Elmerraji, CMT, is a senior market analyst at Agora Financial in Baltimore and a contributor to TheStreet. Before that, he managed a portfolio of stocks for an investment advisory returned 15% in 2008. He has been featured in Forbes , Investor's Business Daily, and on CNBC.com. Jonas holds a degree in financial economics from UMBC and the Chartered Market Technician designation. Follow Jonas on Twitter @JonasElmerraji


Saturday, August 3, 2013

Will Sprint's Earnings Affect Its Bidding War?

On Wednesday, Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S  ) will release its latest quarterly results. The key to making smart investment decisions on stocks reporting earnings is to anticipate how they'll do before they announce results, leaving you fully prepared to respond quickly to whatever inevitable surprises arise. 

Sprint was once dismissed as an also-ran in the telecom industry, but lately, it's become the subject of a bidding war between two potential suitors. Which one will Sprint take to the altar, and will this quarter's results have an impact on its merger plans? Let's take an early look at what's been happening with Sprint over the past quarter and what we're likely to see in its report.

Stats on Sprint

Analyst EPS Estimate

($0.32)

Year-Ago EPS

($0.29)

Revenue Estimate

$8.71 billion

Change From Year-Ago Revenue

(0.3%)

Earnings Beats in Past 4 Quarters

3

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

Can Sprint finally start connecting with customers?
Prospective mergers aside, analysts have remained pessimistic recently about Sprint's earnings. They've widened their loss estimates for the just-ended quarter by $0.04 per share, with full-year 2013 consensus showing more than double that move. Yet the interest in the company has pushed its stock ahead by more than 25% since mid-January.

Until last week, it looked like Sprint would move forward with its deal with Japan's SoftBank, under which the Japanese bidder plans to give the U.S. carrier a massive infusion of capital in exchange for a 70% stake in Sprint. But DISH Network's (NASDAQ: DISH  ) offer last week to make a $25.5 billion bid for the entire company has thrown a wrench into the works, and investors are hoping for higher bids from potential buyers to sweeten the deal.

DISH's move is especially interesting in light of its having gotten into the middle of Sprint's ongoing attempts to buy out longtime partner Clearwire (NASDAQ: CLWR  ) , as well. Back in January, DISH made a rival bid for Clearwire as a way to get critical spectrum and LTE network infrastructure without having to build it from scratch. A bigger purchase of Sprint outright would give DISH the same benefits, albeit with a much larger financial commitment.

Unfortunately for Sprint, all the merger talk is a distraction from the challenges its business faces. Verizon and AT&T continue to dominate the industry, and despite attempts from federal regulators to give Sprint and other smaller carriers more of a chance at competing, the fact remains that the two leaders are profitable, while Sprint isn't seen getting back into black until 2015 at the earliest.

In Sprint's report, look beyond the merger distraction to closely examine exactly where Sprint is losing money. Only by addressing operational challenges can Sprint get back on track and become a viable third player in the U.S. wireless space, and if bad earnings lead its buyers to have second thoughts, it could hurt the stock badly.

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Thursday, August 1, 2013

Why Merck Is Poised to Pop

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, drug behemoth Merck (NYSE: MRK  ) has earned a respected four-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Merck and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

Merck facts

Headquarters (founded)

Whitehouse Station, N.J. (1891)

Market Cap

$146.6 billion

Industry

Pharmaceuticals

Trailing-12-Month Revenue

$46.2 billion

Management

Chairman/CEO Kenneth Frazier
CFO Peter Kellogg

Return on Equity (average, past 3 years)

8.7%

Cash / Debt

$16.0 billion / $20.8 billion

Dividend Yield

3.5%

Competitors

GlaxoSmithKline
Novartis
Pfizer

Sources: S&P Capital IQ and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 93% of the 2,928 members who have rated Merck believe the stock will outperform the S&P 500 going forward.

Just last month, one of those Fools, All-Star joryko, succinctly summed up the Merck bull case for our community:

Long-term outperform for a steady Eddie in a strong industry.

-Incredibly strong drug pipeline
-3.6% [dividend yield]
-Broad demographic shift toward more demand for their goods
-Somewhat expensive, but justified, as it is a great defensive selection

5+ year outperform as Merck looks to reinvigorate its sales with 6 quality drugs in its pipeline.

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